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Projecting the Demographic Cliff: 18-Year-Olds and High School Graduates

ByBlake Decker

Building on our previous blog posts, we continue our spring series on enrollment trends in higher education. Our first post in the series reviewed updated birth-related data that showed the United States experienced a 17% decrease in the number of births from 4.32 million in 2007 to 3.6 million in 2023. This national ‘birth dearth’ has not been experienced to the same extent in Texas, as the number of births in Texas fell 4.3% from 407,625 in 2007 to 387,945 in 2023.

From the perspective of higher education enrollments, colleges and universities nationally are bracing for the projected enrollment decline that coincides with the decrease in babies born in the late 2000s, as they will be turning 18 within the next few years. While this post explores projection data related to 18-year-olds and high school graduates across the USA and Texas, the most important element to this blog post will be linking these projections with the out-of-state migration data presented in our last blog post, including a review of high school graduation trends for states that are currently the top out-of-state destinations for Texans who directly enroll in higher education after high school graduation.

trends for 18-year-olds

  • USA Projections
    • As you can see in the first visualization below, the most recent single year of age estimates from the US Census Bureau show 4.36 million 18-year-olds in the nation in 2023. While this number represented an increase of 3.6% from the 2015 estimate of 4.21 million, the 2023 total number of 18-year-olds in America is a 5.3% decrease from the peak of 2007.
    • Looking at the “Projections” side of the chart shows not one, but two demographic ‘cliffs’ for 18-year-old residents in the 2023 Projections from the Census Bureau. The first drop of approximately 7.4% is projected to occur between 2026 and 2030 (4.47M in 2026 to 4.14M in 2030), while the second drop from 2033 to 2039 of almost 9% (4.2M in 2033 to 3.8M in 2039) has caused increased alarm about the potential effects on higher education enrollment in the next 15 years in America.
    • An additional concern on the “Projections” side can be seen when comparing the two sets of projections. The 2017 vintage projected a steady increase from 2034 through 2060, while the 2023 projections show a relatively flat trend from 2040-2055 before a drop off in 2060. The 2023 projections represent a decrease of almost 700K 18-year-old residents in American by 2060 when compared to the Census Bureau’s projections from 2017.
  • Texas Projections
    • The second visualization below shows that Texas will likely not be immune to decreasing population of 18-year-old residents in the next decade or so, due to the decline in births discussed above.
    • If we focus on the window from 2000 to 2033, the estimated number for 18-year-old Texans will have increased by 35% from 332K in 2000 to 447K in 2033.
    • The Texas downward trend for 18-year-olds is projected to occur in a timeframe similar to the second drop in the national projections from the Census Bureau’s 2023 estimates.
    • The chart below shows the projected decline to start in 2034, as the Texas Demographic Center (TDC) estimates Texas will have more than 447,000 18-year-old residents in both 2033 and 2034. By 2039, the TDC projects this segment of the Texas population will decrease 10.6% to just below 400,000 18-year-old residents before starting to rebound in 2040.

Trends in High School Graduates

Data from the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE)’s “Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates (11th Edition)” has long been considered the primary source for estimates about the future of high school graduates nationally and within each state. The 11th edition of this report was published in December 2024 and includes estimates/projections spanning an 18-year window from 2023 to 2041.

  • USA Projections
    • As shown in the third visualization above, 2025 is estimated to be the high-water mark for the number of high school graduates in the United States with almost 3.9 million graduating from public and private high schools in 2025.
    • Except for slight bumps in 2034 and 2039, the number of high school graduates in America is projected to fall to 3.4 million in 2041, an overall 13% decrease from the peak of 2025 to the end of the projection window in 2041.
    • In terms of regionality, WICHE projects that states in the Northeast (-17%), Midwest (-16%), and West (-17%) regions collectively are projected to see double-digit decreases in high school graduates, while states in the South region are projected to see an overall gain of 3% from 2023 to 2041.
    • Overall, WICHE projects that 10 states will grow from the 2025 peak through 2041, while the rest of the states will see decreases in high school graduates through 2041.
  • Texas Projections
    • The last visualization above shows that Texas is predicted to overtake California as the highest producer of high school graduates in 2033, with the gap between Texas and California widening to more than 75,000 graduates by 2041.
    • In terms of numerical growth, Florida leads Texas in the increase of high school graduates from 2023 to 2041, as Florida is projected to add almost 26,000 high school graduates by 2041 (221,601 in 2023 to 247,409 in 2041), while Texas is projected to grow by 21,000 from 393,596 in 2023 to 414,861 in 2041. California has the highest numerical losses of high school graduates in the country of more than 138,000, dropping from 478K in 2023 to 339K in 2041.
    • When calculating percentage change, five states are predicted to experience double-digit growth in high school graduates from 2023 to 2041: Tennessee (15.1%), South Carolina (14.4%), Idaho (13.5%), North Dakota (12.8%), and Florida (11.6%). Texas ranks 10th in terms of percentage growth with a 5.4% increase from 2023 to 2041. At the bottom of the distribution with more than 25% decreases are West Virginia (-25.6%), New York (-26.6%), California (-29%), Illinois (-31.9%), and Hawaii (-32.9%).

So What?

In our previous blog post, we examined the out-of-state migration of high school graduates from Texas who directly enrolled in colleges and universities located outside of Texas. The most recent data from fall 2022 showed that higher education institutions in five states enrolled at least 1,300 Texans who were direct enrollees after graduating from high school in Texas: Oklahoma (3,732), Arkansas (3,579), Louisiana (1,777), New York (1,337), and Colorado (1,300).

If we contextualize these five states in terms of WICHE’s projections, only one (Oklahoma) of the five states is projected to see any growth in high school graduates from 2023 to 2041, and Oklahoma’s increase is statistically imperceptible at 0.08%. These current top-5 states for out-migration of Texas high school graduates are projected to decrease by almost 17% collectively from 398K in 2023 to 333K in 2041 in the number of high school graduates they are producing within their own states. If you factor in California, which was the 6th-highest importer of Texas high school graduates who directly enrolled in fall 2022, those six states are projected to produce 204K fewer high school graduates from within their own state borders, as the estimated totals drop more than 23% from 876K in 2023 to 672K in 2041.

When we consider how aggressively institutions from outside of Texas are already recruiting Texas high schools, we know there is tremendous competition for Texas talent. With Texas projected to be the highest-producing state in terms of high school graduates within the next decade, coupled with the fact that 80% of all states are projected to have decreases in high school graduates within their borders from 2023 to 2041, the external pressure from out-of-state colleges and universities to entice Texas high school graduates to leave the state will only amplify in the years ahead. As previously stated, these data further demonstrate how important it is that the collective industry of higher education in Texas continues to seek solutions now that are designed to stem the tide of out-of-state migration of Texas’ high school graduates, especially given the projected decreases in high school graduates elsewhere.