The Importance of Context in Labor Market Data and Analysis
Our fourth post in this fall blog series on connecting jobs and academic programs in Texas builds on previous work that showed Texas is forecasted to have the highest number of jobs added to its economy by 2034 when compared to other states in America. Our last post focused on the “General and Operations Managers Occupation” group, finding a supply-and-demand gap of almost 10,000 in Texas in 2023 where the number of degrees awarded (37,613 at the bachelor’s level and above) was less than the number of annual job openings (47,342). While our original analysis showed that the “Management” occupation category is set to have the highest numeric growth for any occupation domains, the “Computer and Mathematics Occupations” group is projected to have the highest percentage growth of 42% in terms of jobs added from 2022 to 2034 across Texas. This post takes a closer look at the current supply-and-demand gap in this high-need occupational area in Texas to better understand potential challenges in the coming years.
Gaps between Jobs Created and Degrees Awarded: Computer and Mathematical Occupations
In order to determine where gaps exist between jobs and degrees awarded, we are using the “CIP-to-SOC” crosswalk that connects academic programs (CIP codes) with occupations (SOC codes). See “A Quick Note About Methodology” below for more details. Using data from Lightcast, a labor market analytics company, the “Computer and Mathematics Occupation” group is comprised of job titles that include software engineers, data engineers, data analysts, and data scientists. With the majority of these job titles requiring at least a bachelor’s degree, our analysis below will only include degrees awarded at the bachelors level or higher.
- As can be seen in the top visualization below, Lightcast data show almost 57,000 job openings in the Computer and Mathematical Occupations group in 2023 across Texas. This annual openings estimate is a combination of growth through new jobs as well as replacement jobs that “will need to be filled by new hires due to existing workers leaving the occupation” (Lightcast). This serves as the “demand” in our gap analysis.
- Looking to the left of the openings data shows that in 2023, all colleges and universities in Texas awarded just over 19,000 degrees at the bachelors, masters, and doctoral levels in academic programs most directly aligned to careers in this occupation group. That amount of “supply” results in a supply-demand gap of over 37,000 individuals needed to fill the annual job openings that are a result of growth and turnover in the Computer and Mathematical Occupations group.
- Out of the almost 70 academic programs that are most directly aligned to the “Computer and Mathematical Occupations” group, the highest producing single academic program in Texas was “Computer and Information Sciences, General” with 7,174 degrees awarded in 2023. Of the 19,000 degrees awarded in these academic programs in 2023 across Texas, 10,127 were bachelor’s degrees, 8,468 were master’s degrees, and 419 were doctoral degrees.
A Quick Note About Methodology: Without getting too far into the methodological weeds, we are using the “CIP-to-SOC” crosswalk to determine where gaps exist between occupations and academic credentials awarded in Texas. CIP codes refer to “Classification of Instructional Programs” (CIP) codes created by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), while the “Standard Occupational Classification” (SOC) system is federal standard published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). One of the challenges of using this taxonomy is the somewhat broad interpretation of which academic programs (CIPs) align with which occupations (SOCs) in certain domains. For example, more than 170 academic programs are mapped to the “Computer and Mathematical Occupations” group, including such programs as “General Studies” and “Multi-/Interdisciplinary Studies.” Another challenge is the lack of educational level requirements for different occupations, which makes mapping the credential level (certificate, associate’s degree, bachelor’s degree, etc.) to specific occupations not possible.
So What?
In our narrative above, we intentionally used the phrase “most directly aligned” to describe the link between certain academic programs and the Computer and Mathematics Occupation group. The primary reason for this distinction is that the original CIP-to-SOC mapping includes more than 170 academic programs that have been linked to jobs in this occupation group. As with the “Management” group in the previous blog post, some of the academic programs mapped to the “Computer and Mathematics Occupations” group include “Multi-/Interdisciplinary Studies, Other”, “General Studies”, “Liberal Arts and Sciences/Liberal Studies”, and “Multi-/Interdisciplinary Studies, General”. If we included these types of academic programs at all credential levels (certificate through doctorate) in the completions count for 2023, the data would show more than 135,000 completions across institutions in Texas. This would seem to indicate Texas was producing more than double the number of individuals who were ready to fill specific occupations in the Computer and Mathematics Occupation group. A closer examination of the data show that this is not the case.
The intent of not including these “less directly aligned” academic programs is not to dismiss the possibility that someone with a more broadly-defined academic credential cannot find her way into a software developer or data analyst position. In fact, this author is someone who took what could be considered the “road less traveled” to his current role with the A&M System. The methodological decisions above are intended to recognize data have to be contextualized for accurate, appropriate interpretation and application of findings. For example, hiring managers for jobs in this occupation group, especially in early career positions, are more likely seeking candidates with job-specific preparation at time of application. Historically, academic credentials have served as the primary “currency” for the requisite skills needed for a newly-minted graduate to become a successful employee when joining an organization. The supply-and-demand gap analysis above attempts to account for this type of context when determining how small, or in this case, how large the gap is between job openings in the Computer and Mathematics Occupation group and the number of degrees awarded that serve as the supply to meet that demand.